Friday, May 15, 2009

Dubious (national) polling

Not that I want to start a debate on abortion since, quite frankly, I think those debates are rather fruitless given the passionate views on both sides, but this Gallup poll was surprising ... and rather dubious.

In one year, the opinions changed from a six percent advantage for those who consider themselves 'pro-choice' to a nine percent advantage for those who consider themselves 'pro-life.' From a statistical perspective, that seems rather off given the incremental movement in the poll dating back the past 14 years. While the pro-life distinction had gained ground, a 15-percent swing is unheard of and appears to be a statistical outlyer.

Reinforcing that is polling data that shows 53 percent of Americans favor legal abortion under some circumstances with only 22 percent favoring an outright ban on abortion. Those views are statistically identical to where they were in 1975, which makes me think that placing too much focus on what moniker folks wish to use is misleading.

That data, with a few shifts here and there, has remained rather stagnant and, to me at least, it suggests that more folks who favor legal abortion under some circumstances (again what are circumstances qualify as 'some' ... a teenager getting pregnant by her boyfriend or a teenager being raped by someone?) feel comfortable in classifying themselves as 'pro-life.'

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