Was it a 'good' night?

The circulating meme was that last night was 'good' for Republicans based on wins in Virginia and New Jersey. A pair of convincing wins in high-profile governor races can do that, but I don't necessarily think it's so.

There are several flaws with this proposition, and I'd suggest the situation is still rather murky - if not more murky - for Republicans. As I've argued, those elections were more determined by local issues rather than perceptions, and exit polls showed both a high dissatisfaction with incumbents and that President Obama was a non-factor.

What's more fascinating to sift through is the carnage that is the special election for District 23 in New York. This is a district that is solidly Republican - so much so that it hadn't elected a Democrat to Congress since the 1800s - yet it was won by a no-name Democrat who, quite frankly, was the token opposition put up against the hand-picked Republican candidate Dede Scozzafava.

But a funny thing, or shall I say a funny guy, happened along the way to Scozzafava's all-but-assured election ... Doug Hoffman.

Hoffman, a little known accountant, ran as third party candidate representing the Conservative Party. He hit on all the key far-right talking points by decrying 'Obamacare' and railing against the stimulus package. Hoffman didn't live in the district, didn't know anything about local issues and raised more than 85 percent of his money from outside of the district.

Yet, that didn't stop the national conservative movement - the Sarah Palins, Rush Limbaughs, Glenn Becks and Erick Ericksons of the world - from issuing a call to arms to take over that race and push forward a far-right message from a fringe candidate flush with Club For Growth dollars.

Now, to be sure, Scozzafava was an awful candidate for Republicans to put forward. She was progressive on social issues and moderate on fiscal ones, but she was a loyal foot solider for the New York GOP and had worked her way up the ranks through the state's General Assembly.

This is a pattern that will repeat. Erickson - aka 'The Witches Hammer' - has already declared Hoffman's loss as a massive victory for the far-right movement, and pledges of primary challenges to moderate Republicans will continue unabated. Gov. Charlie Crist, a rather popular moderate who endorsed the stimulus package, is now firmly in the sights of conservatives.

Granted, every analyst and strategist who doesn't earn money for saying outlandish and offensive things has recognized this - and the voters have overwhelmingly rejected that type of politics from both sides of the aisle - yet the purging of moderates from the Republican Party will march forward.

And that troubling development is only compounded by this next one.

In both Virginia and New Jersey, the Democratic coalition that propelled Obama into the White House simply didn't turn out. Perhaps it was voter fatigue. Perhaps it was the fact they lacked the desire to go vote. Perhaps it was awful candidates. Perhaps it was frustration with futile 'bipartisanship' attempts.

Regardless, it's clear that voters didn't necessarily move to back Republicans, they just literally didn't move at all. If you look at the preliminary numbers from last night's contests, the Republicans turned their base out and Democrats didn't. If Democrats are motivated to turn out to the polls by engaging candidates, compelling issues and a firm stance for progressive issues, then they win New Jersey easily and make Virginia 50-50 again.

Or, put more succinctly, the Republicans thew everything they had last night and won two seats, but, if they continue to assail moderates, they can't match the raw size and power of the emerging Democratic electorate when it's effectively engaged. The problem, then, is that the GOP has to expand its appeal, while Democrats have to find a way to keep their voters going to the polls in non-presidential elections.