From my Sunday column in the Athens Banner-Herald ...
Proponents of the homebuyers' tax credit, like Isakson, don't have as much supportive evidence. In fact, the credit appears to have had only a minimal effect on the overall sales figures. An analysis by The Brookings Institution concluded that out of the 1.9 million buyers expected to get the credit, more than 85 percent of them would have purchased a home without it.
This is understandable, given that a narrowly targeted, one-time incentive of $8,000 has a marginal effect on the relatively large price tag of a house. For people struggling during a down economy, it simply isn't enough justification to buy. The risk remains too high, resulting in the majority of those buying a home doing so for reasons not attributable to the availability of the credit.
In addition, the majority of the new home sales are helping move renters into ownership, which can be a positive development in terms of individual economic security but is problematic with regard to the nation's housing inventory. Most analysts indicate one of the primary reasons for the weak housing market is that it's still sorting through the aftermath of the housing bubble. Too many homes were built and left vacant thanks to the recession, resulting in an 8.5-month supply of housing inventory across the country.