Monday, July 27, 2009

OneAthens?

Blake brings word of a second Republican jumping into the District 47 primary which means this seat, currently held by Madison County's Ralph Hudgens but represents half of progressive Athens-Clarke County, will more than likely remain in the hands of a non-Athenian.

Not shocking and, seeing how the community has Sen. Bill Cowsert - a man who I have several ideological disagreements with but who, by in large, has been a fairly effective representative for the area - there's nothing to be concerned about ... yet.

And Athens-Clarke County Chamber of Commerce President Doc Eldridge alluded to this last year ...

Splitting Clarke County between two districts could hurt Athens one day, though, because senators from outside Athens could potentially hold both seats, Eldridge said. Athens is the fifth-largest metro area in the state and should be guaranteed at least one senator, he said.

The question, of course, is when is that day? Arguably, it's going to happen within the next four to six years. Cowsert has been long regarded as a rising star in the Republican Party, and he's been connected to everything ranging from Lt. Governor to Congress (and, truth be told, I'd be obliged to see him challenge Rep. Paul Broun in the GOP primary).

Given that at some point in the near future Cowsert will head off for greener pastures, that puts a mildly competitive seat in play. However, it's still a Republican-leaning one that is dominated by conservatives in Oconee County and Walton County. So, then, who's on the bench for area Republicans?

Outside of Eldridge, is there another well-known Athens Republican who can win the seat, thus fulfilling what he thinks is essential for the community in terms of representation? Or, as I would expect, would a conservative from the two counties which dominate the process earn the Republican nomination?

In 2008, Sherry Jackson was solidly defeated by Cowsert in the general election as vote totals from the neighboring conservative counties swamped her. However, in Athens-Clarke County, she crushed Cowsert almost two-to-one by a 19,561 to 11,781 total. Likewise, Jane Kidd won Athens-Clarke County by a similar proportional margin in a non-presidential election (10,579 to 5,549).

Given the lack of viable Republican candidates in the area, it's not a stretch to realize that - absent some redistricting efforts - in the near future Athens-Clarke County will more than likely have a pair of state senators representing it that won't hail from the community.

Would the local entities, largely conservative ones, that supported splitting Athens-Clarke County in two districts have a change of heart and request giving the community one state senator rather than two ... even if it meant a virtual assurance that any state senator would be a Democrat?