Tuesday, October 27, 2009

More inside baseball

An interesting column by Jay Bookman, which is - for the most part - a rather accurate depiction of what's going on. I would quibble with some of the poll numbers that Bill Kristol is citing and Bookman, to a lesser extent, is conceding.

The key to the Gallup poll is the language of the questions. There's a distinct difference between individuals identifying themselves as 'conservative' or 'liberal' when it comes to their political thought, and, by contrast asking them whether or not they are 'Republican' or 'Democrat.' When you ask the latter - and, let's be honest, it's the latter that matters in political circles - we see that no one really wants to say they're Republican.

The poll by The Washington Post showed that only 20 percent of the people identified themselves as Republican, compared to 33 percent as Democrats and 42 percent as independents. Likewise, this CNN poll shows a high level of disapproval with the Republican Party, while Research 2000 has consistently shown Republican approval levels to be woefully low outside of the South.

To clarify the confusion, it's important to recognize that more people are going say they are 'conservative' when asked whether or not they're 'liberal' or 'conservative' because the former, for more than 30 years, has been labeled as a 'dirty word' in political circles (though that, too, is changing). As evident through the discussions regarding the health care legislation, there are plenty of conservative and moderate Democrats in the mix, but only a handful of liberal and moderate Republicans.

As a result, the number of folks saying they are 'conservative' is remaining rather stagnant from cycle to cycle, but those folks are more closely identifying themselves with the Democratic Party as of late. That's not a 'game, set, match' type of point to make, but it's an important clarification to make when anyone, like Kristol, starts talking about how America loves Republicans.