Analysis for the sake of it

This is mmore national in nature, but tomorrow's Election Day for a few places, and they've all been very fascinating races to watch. There are three key races worth watching - New Jersey governor, New York District 23 and Virginia governor - and conservatives figure to capture all three of them (though, in New Jersey, it really is a toss-up but with movement to Republican candidate Chris Christie).

A friend who sees the world through a different ideological prism than me asked if I'd accept this as a rejection of President Obama and Democratic policies. In a word, no. And, when you understand the context, there's plenty of reason to understand why that is so.

In New Jersey, the fact of the matter is that both candidates are awful. That's why a third party candidate jumped into the race and is drawing 10 percent of the vote and neither Christie or Democrat Jon Corzine can get above 42 percent in the polls. Ultimately, I think the voters are going to want some change and, truth be told, Corzine's been a rather lousy governor who happens to be the guy in office when the economy went south. Christie will benefit from that, but he's probably a one-term governor in a solidly Democratic New Jersey.

In Virginia, Democrats have made steady gains for eight years - taking control of a house of the Virginia General Assembly, electing two U.S. Senators and a pair of governors - and it's naturally time for that to come to an end in this purple state. Plus, Creigh Deeds was easily the worst Democratic candidate in the field, and he's run a lousy campaign in contrast to Bob McConnell's. Given that McConnell had already beaten Deeds in a statewide race once before, it's not shocking to see history repeating itself.

And in New York, everything has imploded in a fantastic way. This is a solidly Republican district that has a cultural makeup closer to our own Georgia District 10 than what we might traditionally think of New York. The fact that the Republican Party opted to put up a moderate-to-liberal candidate was utterly staggering in the first place and resulted in Doug Hoffman, a Conservative Party candidate, jumping into the fray. Hoffman is, for lack of a better term, an absolute nut ... and because of so, he's earned the endorsements of folks like Sarah Palin and Texas Gov. Rick Perry. In this rock-ribbed Republican district, Hoffman's embracement of far-right talking points has been overwhelmingly embraced by the voters (despite the fact that he doesn't live in the district and has no concept of local issues). Once Republican Dede Scozzafava dropped out over the weekend and endorsed Democrat Bill Owens, this thing was done.

So, by my assessment, I don't necessarily think it's a harbringer of 2010 (where I see pretty much a status quo election to be honest, with Republicans picking up a decent chunk of seats in the House of Representatives). Instead, I see it as an example of voter frustration with poor campaigning and failed leadership, and, in New York, the movement of the Republican base to even more hardline, conservative positions that are out-of-step with the mainstream these days.